Nonlinear modal regression for dependent data with application for predicting COVID-19.

In this paper, under the stationary α-mixing dependent samples, we develop a novel nonlinear modal regression for time series sequences and establish the consistency and asymptotic property of the proposed nonlinear modal estimator with a shrinking bandwidth h under certain regularity conditions. The asymptotic distribution is shown to be identical to the one derived from the independent observations, whereas the convergence rate ( n h 3 in which n is the sample size) is slower than that in the nonlinear mean regression. We numerically estimate the proposed nonlinear modal regression model by the use of a modified modal expectation-maximization (MEM) algorithm in conjunction with Taylor expansion. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to demonstrate the good finite sample (prediction) performance of the newly proposed model. We also construct a specified nonlinear modal regression to match the available daily new cases and new deaths data of the COVID-19 outbreak at the state/region level in the United States, and provide forward predictions up to 130 days ahead (from 24 August 2020 to 31 December 2020). In comparison to the traditional nonlinear regressions, the suggested model can fit the COVID-19 data better and produce more precise predictions. The prediction results indicate that there are systematic differences in spreading distributions among states/regions. For most western and eastern states, they have many serious COVID-19 burdens compared to Midwest. We hope that the built nonlinear modal regression can help policymakers to implement fast actions to curb the spread of the infection, avoid overburdening the health system and understand the development of COVID-19 from some points.

Study of fractional order dynamics of nonlinear mathematical model

This manuscript is devoted to establishing some theoretical and numerical results for a nonlinear dynamical system under Caputo fractional order derivative. Further, the said system addresses an infectious disease like COVID-19. The proposed system involves natural death rates of susceptible, infected and recovered classes respectively. By using nonlinear analysis feasible region and boundedness have been established first in this study. Global and Local stability analysis along with basic reproduction number have also addressed by using the next generation matrix method. Upon using the fixed point approach, existence and uniqueness of the approximate solution for the mentioned problem has also investigated. Some stability results of Hyers-Ulam (H-U) type have also discussed. Further for numerical treatment, we have exercised two numerical schemes including modified Euler method (MEM) and nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) method. Further the two numerical schemes have also compared with respect to CPU time. Graphical presentations have been displayed corresponding to different fractional order by using some real data. © 2022 THE AUTHORS

Migratory birds as the vehicle of transmission of multi drug resistant extended spectrum ß lactamase producing Escherichia fergusonii, an emerging zoonotic pathogen.

The acquisition of multi-drug resistance (MDR) genes by pathogenic bacterial bugs and their dispersal to different food webs has become a silent pandemic. The multiplied use of different antibacterial therapeutics during COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the process among emerging pathogens. Wild migratory birds play an important role in the spread of MDR pathogens and MDR gene flow due to the consumption of contaminated food and water. Escherichia fergusonii is an emerging pathogen of family Enterobacteriaceae and commonly causes disease in human and animals. The present study focused on the isolation of E. fergusonii from blood, saliva, and intestine of selected migratory birds of the Hazara Division. The sensitivity of isolated strains was assessed against ten different antibiotics. The isolation frequency of E. fergusonii was 69%. In blood samples, a high rate of resistance was observed against ceftriaxone (80%) followed by ampicillin (76%) whereas, in oral and intestinal samples, ceftriaxone resistant strains were 56% and 57% while ampicillin resistance was 49% and 52% respectively. The overall ceftriaxone and ampicillin-resistant cases in all three sample sources were 71% and 65% respectively. In comparison to oral and intestinal samples, high numbers of ceftriaxone-resistant strains were isolated from the blood of mallard while ampicillin-resistant strains were observed in blood samples of cattle egrets. 16S rRNA-based confirmed strains of E. fergusonii were processed for detection of CTX-M and TEM-1 gene through Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) after DNA extraction. Hundred percent ceftriaxone resistant isolates possessed CTX-M and all ampicillin-resistant strains harbored TEM-1 genes. Amplified products were sequenced by using the Sanger sequencing method and the resulted sequences were checked for similarity in the nucleotide Database through the BLAST program. TEM-1 gene showed 99% and the CTX-M gene showed 98% similar sequences in the Database. The 16S rRNA sequence and nucleotide sequences for TEM-1 and CTX-M genes were submitted to Gene Bank with accession numbers LC521304, LC521306, LC521307 respectively. We posit to combat MDR gene flow among the bacterial pathogens across different geographical locations, regular surveillance of new zoonotic pathogens must be conducted.

On the early detecting of the COVID-19 outbreak.

INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to measure the performance of early detection methods, which are usually used for infectious diseases. METHODOLOGY: By using real data of confirmed Coronavirus cases from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Italy, the moving epidemic method (MEM) and the moving average cumulative sums (Mov. Avg Cusum) methods are used in our simulation study. RESULTS: Our results suggested that the CUSUM method outperforms the MEM in detecting the start of the Coronavirus outbreak.

[Importance of corneal organ culture in donors with possible SARS-CoV-2 infections]. / Bedeutung der Hornhautorgankultur bei Spendern mit möglicher SARS-CoV-2-Infektion.

The appearance of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV­2) poses challenges in ophthalmology particularly for eye banks. A valid risk assessment for the removal and processing of donor corneas is difficult due to the lack of data. The risk to infect transplant recipients with SARS-CoV­2 still appears very unlikely due to the experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome -coronavirus(­1) (SARS-CoV(­1)) and Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV); however, due to the occurrence of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors in the cornea an infection of this tissue with SARS-CoV­2 cannot be completely excluded. Therefore, routine testing of the organ culture medium used for donor corneas for SARS-CoV­2 prior to transplantation during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID­19) pandemic should be considered.